LAGUNA, Philippines (20 June 2025) -- Regional cooperation and country-focused policy solutions for global rice market challenges were at the center of discussion in the plenary session of IRRI’s 65th celebrations on “Navigating Uncertainty: Global Rice Markets amid Trade Policy Shifts and Changing Climate” on June 10, 2025. “Climate change and trade policy shocks are amplifying the volatility of global rice markets.”, was one of the key messages delivered by IRRI Senior Scientist Dr. Alisher Mirzabaev.
As a matter of fact, climate change is already affecting rice yields. “In some places there are small [production] gains, but losses are predominating already.”, explained Mirzabaev. This can be seen through the increasing weather variability at the country level. For example, in Tanzania, its level of rice self-sufficiency is fragile because of weather variability. Every two to three years there are droughts affecting Tanzania’s rice production systems jeopardizing food security.
According to IRRI’s Global Rice Model, rice production needs to increase by 15-20% or about 50-70 million more tons to meet global demands. “Clearly, it’s not about the yields anymore.”, Mirzabaev further explained that factors such as the environment, livelihoods, and social inclusion must also be taken into consideration. Moreover, trade policies such as the 2023 Indian export ban on non-basmati white rice and USA’s shifting tariffs are heightening uncertainties in the global rice markets.
“In Thailand, we try to upgrade our rice quality.”, shared Deputy Director General Dr. Chitnucha Buddhaboon of Thailand’s Rice Department. He discussed that the country supports the production of organic rice, good agricultural practice (GAP) rice, and implements high standards to be more competitive and meet market demands. Buddhaboon also stated that processing rice to develop other products for cosmetic or health use helps expand their market options.
Deputy Director General Nguyen Anh Phong of Vietnam’s Institute of Strategy and Policy for Agriculture and Environment (ISPAE) affirmed the lessons they have learned from the 2008 world food price crisis. He shared how they applied those lessons when India implemented its export ban in 2023. “I think the decision made [this time] was more scientific and research-based, showing the role that scientists, including from IRRI and my institute, can play in advising policymaking in the food markets.”. Phong also discussed how the Vietnamese government is derisking smallholder rice farmers by providing them insurance and low-interest loans as long as they are actively committed to the goals of the country’s “One Million Hectares of High Quality and Low-Emission Rice Program”.
Rice is Kenya’s third most important cereal after maize and wheat. However, Kenyan rice producers are up against rising imports. “What the government has done, is that they reduced the imports by 50% to cushion our farmers.”, shared Dr. Ruth Musila, Centre Director of the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization - Industrial Crops Research Centre based in Mwea (KALRO – ICRC – Mwea). This target was part of Kenya’s broader strategy to achieve the country’s food security goals by boosting local production. She also mentioned that they are focusing on improving their seed systems by producing nutritious, market-preferred, and climate-resilient rice varieties. “Without very good seed systems, without certified seeds, we cannot increase our rice production.”
ADB Senior Macroeconomist Dr. John Beirne provided a broader take on current investment directions in the global rice markets. While USA may not be a major rice producing country, it holds significant influence over the global economy. “One must look at the impact that this can have on uncertainty-- on price volatility which is very significant not only for food prices but also more generally.”, Beirne explained. “And what we’re seeing is that it actually has a significant negative impact on investments. It’s delaying investment decisions over a long horizon, and this has an impact on investment in climate-resilient infrastructures and all other factors as well.”
Now, how can nations navigate such uncertainties?
IRRI Board Member Dr. Shenggen Fan said that the answers lie from the lessons of the 2008 world food price crisis, partly because of the formation of the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR). “Physical reserves but also more importantly, the policy coordination.” APTERR is now a permanent regional cooperation mechanism which serves as a platform for promoting food and nutrition security, as well as poverty alleviation with a focus on maintaining stable global markets. Fan recommends expanding the regional partnership by inviting more nations with aligned goals to the platform.
“When it comes to East Africa, we need to have our strategies right.”, Musila echoes the sentiment, sharing how countries in East Africa are respectively doing their own National Rice Development Strategies which are aligned with the East African Community Rice Development Strategy (ERDS) to achieve Green Revolution in Africa.